The reality of climate change is much more serious than is generally believed. It is sometimes said that progress is slow or, in fact, that climate change is not happening, but they are only a conscience.

You may think that global warming is the story of the 18th-century British burning coal, which has given rise to the generation of grandchildren and children. But more than half of fossil fuel combustion has taken place since 1989. After 1945, that proportion would be about 85 percent.

As I wrote in detail in My Book, The Day You Can’t Live on Earth: The Inevitable Truth of “Climatic Collapse,” we now emit carbon dioxide at least ten times as fast as during mass extinction. It is 100 times higher than before the Industrial Revolution. Already, atmospheric carbon dioxide has reached the highest level in the last 800,000 years, or even 15 million years.

What shakes the fate of the earth and jeopardizes the maintenance of human life and civilization is the work of our lives, not of any time in the past.

Climate change is going much faster than we recognize and understand, and lasting much longer than we imagine.

Worst predictions that have been hidden
In the Syrian civil war that began in 2011, about one million refugees flowed into Europe, largely due to climate change and drought. Large numbers of refugees caused panic, triggering a populism whirlwind in Europe and the United States. The World Bank estimates that refugees will also emerge from sub-Saharan Africa, Latin America and South Asia, which will exceed 140 million by 2050. That’s more than 100 times the number brought to Europe during the Syrian crisis.

The United Nations forecast is even more stringent, with 200 million refugees due to climate change by 2050. Lost homes equal to the total population of the world at the height of the Roman Empire, and wander for new places. “More than 1 billion people in poverty are forced to choose between fighting and fleeing,” the United Nations describes the worst scenario.

By the time the Kyoto Protocol was adopted in 1997, it was thought that a serious situation would occur if the temperature of the earth exceeded 2 ° C. Big cities are being flooded, droughts and heat waves, hurricanes and monsoons, and what used to be “natural disasters,” become everyday “bad weather.”

We can no longer avoid this situation. Despite more than 20 years since the Kyoto Protocol, virtually nothing has been achieved. Although legislation and the introduction of green energy are progressing and various activities are becoming active, carbon dioxide emissions are increasing.

In 2016, the Paris Agreement stipulated that the average temperature increase should not exceed 2 ° C. However, in the years since then, no developed country has been steadily approaching its goals. Unexpectedly, the 2 ° C target has turned into a desirable scenario, and the dreadful possibility of further rising temperatures is cleverly hidden from the public.

If you overlook the worst predictions, you will think lightly about what can happen and you will not be prepared. The maximum prediction is the upper limit of the probability, and the prediction below it may happen at any time. Concerns about climate change have been raised half a century ago, and given that all optimism has been dismissed, shouldn’t the worst forecast be the guide?

What Happens at 2 ° C
The United Nations Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) sets standards for assessing the current state of the planet and the future of climate change. It’s modest, since we’re only using solid, undisputed research results.

The next report is due in 2022, but the latest report warns that average temperatures will rise by about 3.2 degrees Celsius by the end of the century unless action is taken that has not yet been implemented, as determined by the Paris Agreement. are doing.

The rise of ℃ 3.2 ° C makes melting of the ice sheet a reality, which is also a pressing issue. 100 cities around the world, including Miami and Dhaka, Shanghai and Hong Kong, will be submerged.

Some studies indicate that the break is 2 ° C. However, even if we can stop the increase in carbon dioxide immediately, the average temperature will rise by 2 degrees C by the end of the century.

What will happen if the average global temperature rises by 2 degrees Celsius?

・ The disappearance of the ice sheet covering the ground surface begins

・ 400 million people suffer from water shortage

・ Metropolises located in the equatorial zone will not be suitable for living

・ Thousands of people die in summer heat wave in Northern Hemisphere

In India, heat wave incidence will increase 32 times, duration will increase 5 times, and the number of affected people will increase 93 times

This is still the “best” scenario.

So what happens if the rise is 3 ° C?

・ In southern Europe, drought becomes chronic, and in Central America and the Caribbean, averages 1 year and 7 months and 1 year and 9 months respectively. Northern Africa can be as long as five years

The area burned by forest fires is more than doubled in the Mediterranean and more than six times in the United States

Even if the average temperature rise by 2100 could be kept below 2 ° C, 500 ppm or even more carbon dioxide would still be present in the atmosphere. So was the earth 16 million years ago. At that time, the sea level was 40 meters higher.

Some changes on the earth take thousands of years, and they never return. Unless carbon dioxide emissions continue to increase, the United Nations will alarm if the average global temperature in 2100 rises by at least 3 ° C, perhaps more than 4 ° C. It will be more than doubled, even though the Paris Agreement set it at 2 ° C.

Most parts of Asia, including Japan, are uninhabitable
Recent research exploring the geological age of the earth suggests that current weather models may underestimate warming by 2100 by about half. This means that the temperature rise can be about twice as high as the IPCC forecast. In that case, even if all the emission targets of the Paris Agreement are achieved, the increase will be 4 ° C.

In reality, we are rushing towards a rising future, with average temperatures above 4 ° C by 2100. Some estimates suggest that the hotspots, desertification and flooding of the continent of Africa, Australia and the United States, north of Patagonia in South America, and south of Siberia in Asia will be inaccessible.

What happens in a world where the average temperature rises by 4 ° C?

・ Dengue infection reaches 8 million in Latin America alone

・ A global food crisis occurs every year

・ Heat-related deaths will account for more than 9% of the total

-River flood damage increased 20 times in India, 30 times in Bangladesh and 60 times in the UK

More and more meteorological disasters occurring simultaneously in one place, costing $ 600 trillion worldwide-more than twice the wealth that exists today. Conflicts and wars will also double

If the average temperature rises by 4 degrees Celsius, the greenery remaining in Sahara and the tropical forests will turn into burning savannah.

If the temperature rises by 4 to 5 degrees Celsius, even if carbon dioxide emissions are greatly reduced, the entire planet could become a lifeless star.

Researchers call it “Hot House Earth”.

There is no doubt that the living environment will be harsh, including in other areas. That is the basic route of the future.

Only one generation is about to collapse, and the next generation must stop it. The next generation-it is us.